Indie game sales estimator
Estimate how many units an indie game sold on Steam from its review count, and what that means in net revenue. This is a white-box estimator: it uses the open Boxleiter method, where estimated lifetime units equal the review count multiplied by a buyers-per-review ratio that starts at 50 and adjusts for release year, launch price, studio size, and genre. Unlike a black-box market report, every adjustment is shown below the result, so you can audit the number and disagree with any step. Figures are modeled estimates, not official sales data.
Estimated lifetime units
70,000
range 42,000 - 98,000
Estimated net revenue
$799K
range $480K - $1.1M
How this number is built (Boxleiter NB 70)
- base
- +50
- year_2024
- 0
- price_$20
- 0
- positive_90%
- +10
- team_small
- 0
- genre_Adventure
- +10
- NB used
- 70
units = reviews × NB. NB starts at 50 and each factor above adjusts it. Revenue applies Steam's 30% cut, regional/discount loss, and refunds. Algorithm v1.0. Estimates are modeled, not official sales.
How the estimate is built
The core formula is units = review count × NB, where NB (the Boxleiter number) is how many copies sell per Steam review. NB starts at a base of 50, then each factor nudges it: older releases (pre-2018) push it up because reviews accrued slowly relative to sales, while very recent releases push it down. Launch price, studio size, and genre apply their own adjustments. Net revenue takes the unit estimate × price, then subtracts Steam's 30% cut, regional pricing and discount loss, and an average refund rate. The lower and upper bounds widen the median to a realistic range rather than a single false-precise figure.
See the full methodology in the white-box Boxleiter writeup, or browse real estimates across 1,300+ tracked games.
Frequently asked questions
- How does the indie game sales estimator work?
- It uses the white-box Boxleiter method: estimated lifetime units = Steam review count multiplied by a "number of buyers per review" (NB) ratio. NB starts at 50 and is adjusted for release year, launch price, studio size, and genre. Net revenue then applies Steam's 30% cut, regional pricing and discount loss, and an average refund rate. Every adjustment is shown, so the number is auditable rather than a black box.
- How accurate are indie game sales estimates from review counts?
- Review-to-sales (Boxleiter) estimates are approximate, typically within a wide band rather than exact. indielist shows a lower-to-upper range (roughly 0.6x to 1.4x of the median) instead of a single false-precise figure, and labels every estimate as modeled, not official sales data.
- What is the Boxleiter number for indie games?
- The Boxleiter number (NB here) is how many copies sold per Steam review. A common rule of thumb is 30-70 sales per review depending on era and genre; this tool starts at 50 and adjusts. Older games skew higher (reviews accumulated slowly relative to sales); very recent releases skew lower.
- Is this sales calculator free?
- Yes, the calculator is free to use with no account required. It runs entirely in your browser using the same open algorithm behind every game page on indielist.